The speeches of President Jair Bolsonaro this Saturday (20th), about new exchanges in his government, should impact the stock market this week. In addition to the effects on Petrobras’ shares, analysts expect that the effects of the intervention on the company’s management will also spill over into other state-owned companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange.
On Friday (19), the appointment of General Joaquim Silva and Luna by Bolsonaro as the new president of Petrobras, in place of Roberto Castello Branco, caused a stir in the market and caused the company to lose R $ 28.2 billion in value market share.
This Saturday, a new speech by the president raised investor caution. “You will quickly learn that worse than a poorly made decision is indecision. I have to rule. Change parts that may not be working. […] Next week we will have more “, said the president to new Army soldiers, at a graduation from the Army Cadets Preparatory School, in Campinas (SP).
Then he stated that the change “is not a ‘bagrinho’ one, it is a ‘shark’ one”, and that gasoline could be 15% cheaper than today.
On the same day, he complained that “now they decided to attack me with energy” and said: “Let’s put our finger on electricity, which is another problem too”.
According to Guide Investimentos analyst Henrique Esteter, the new comments should bring apprehensions to the market this Monday (22).
“It is difficult to know what to expect and, even more, if any other state-owned company will be the target of exchange. Things already seem to have appeased in relation to the Banco do Brasil case and [Wilson] Ferreira Junior has just announced his departure from Eletrobras. There is not much else to do, ”he said.
In January, the announcement that Banco do Brasil was doing an organizational restructuring angered Bolsonaro, who threatened to fire the bank’s president, André Brandão. Minister Tereza Cristina (Agriculture) and Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) had to intervene to prevent the executive from leaving.
In addition, at the end of the month, there was also the announcement that Ferreira Junior would leave the presidency of Eletrobras, remaining in the company’s management until March 5.
Ferreira Junior decided to leave due to the difficulty in approving the privatization of the state-owned company.
According to Fabio Bonchristiano, from Íris Investimentos, Bolsonaro’s contradictory decisions also end up scaring the market.
“The president needs the money that the increase in gasoline brings to the government because of the restricted budget and in view of the continuation of the pandemic, but he is getting rid of those who took the stance that brings the increase in revenue,” he said.
The Castello Branco management focused on the pre-salt and the payment of dividends, which benefit the Union as it is the main shareholder of Petrobras.
For Bonchristiano, although Bolsonaro’s decision is part of a political movement, it will bring intense speculation in the market.
“[Bolsonaro] he is saying ‘I am in charge here’ and he is assuming that, even if the decision is not necessarily good for the company, it will happen because it is good for the government. This spills over into other state-owned companies and brings a very volatile market for the short term, ”he said.
Analysts still expect upward pressure on the future interest curve and a more devalued real against the dollar.