IPOs (initial stock offerings) could add up to R$100 billion this year, with 60 operations, and touch the 2007 record, according to Santander forecast. In that year, there were 64 IPOs, which totaled R$ 55.6 billion — the equivalent today to R$ 116.7 billion adjusted by the IPCA.
Itaú BBA, in turn, expects 40 to 60 IPOs, which could raise between R$60 billion and R$90 billion.
According to analysts, June opens an important window for offers, which extends until the beginning of August.
In it, companies aim to take advantage of the good economic data recently released, such as the better-than-expected GDP at the beginning of 2021, in addition to the fall of the dollar, today at R$ 5.04, and the nominal record (not counting inflation) of the Ibovespa, at 130 thousand points.
In addition, companies that debut in the coming months will use data from the first quarter in the prospectus for investors, a period in which most balance sheets beat expectations.
“The chance of IPOs being successful today is greater than a week ago. Investor appetite is greater. And companies should take advantage of this window opening, which can close quickly,” says André Rosenblit, director of Santander Broker.
There is also a second window between September and October, using the results of the second quarter, and a last one between the end of November and the first half of December, with figures for the third quarter.
For companies looking to expand their capital, it is important to register while the winds are favorable.
As interest rates rise — the market forecast is for a 5.75% Selic at the end of the year — and Brazil approaches 2022, the scenario becomes more prone to risk aversion, which could harm the debuts, leading to them to capture less than expected.
“Next year will be more volatile, due to the presidential election. So, companies in general should and should accelerate this process [de listagem em Bolsa]”, says Rafael Maisonnave, manager of Tarpon Capital.
Besides, for now, with the Selic rate at 3.5% per year, institutional investors (funds, companies and banks) and individuals allocate more resources than usual to variable income, which benefits the stock market as a whole.
“What has been benefiting the capital market for almost two years is the interest rate, which became negative in 2020 [em relação à inflação] and it’s still very low, despite recent adjustments and likely adjustments that will take place by the end of the year,” says Roderick Greenlees, global head of investment banking at Itaú BBA.
“Brazil is in a very positive moment, with investors going to the market more, given the low interest rates, financial education and more accessible platforms, which reduce costs and increase ease,” says Rosenblit, from Santander.
According to data from the CVM (Securities Commission), there are 34 companies waiting for entry to the Stock Exchange.
“It is possible to have two to three IPOs per week. There are 6 million companies in the country, and only about 400 are on the stock exchange. Brazil has everything to double or triple the number of listed companies, and we see that more and more , smaller companies enter the stock market,” says Rosenblit.
According to the executive, companies with cash flow above R$ 100 million are already able to access the capital market via listing on the Stock Exchange.
Given the low representation of the stock market, technology and health companies, which have few pairs on the Stock Exchange, are among the most awaited offers, as well as infrastructure and agribusiness, which also benefit from the current economic cycle, with high commodity prices and low interest rates.
The most anticipated offers this year
Expected funding: BRL 10 billion to BRL 13 billion
When IPO was filed: Thursday (3)
Expected funding: BRL 5 billion to BRL 10 billion
When IPO was filed: May 18th
Expected funding: BRL 2 billion to BRL 3 billion
When IPO was filed: May 17
Expected funding: BRL 2 billion to 3 billion
When IPO was filed: May 17