Lula da Silva (PT) wins the election in the first round, with 53% of the valid votes, in this week’s Datafolha. The research doesn’t allow us to say almost anything about what the candidates’ voting will be in the 100 days until the first round. But the priority of Jair Bolsonaro’s (PL) campaign is to reduce the risk of losing on October 2nd.
For that, Bolsonaro needs not only to win votes, but he has to take them away from Lula. Or, with much less chance of success, he would also have to get votes from voters who were averse to voting for anyone. For the rest, he has to hope that the electorate of Ciro Gomes (PDT) or Simone Tebet (MDB) does not disband,
In theory, by the simple arithmetic of the research, the Bolsonarista task is far from impossible. About 20% of Lula voters now say they can vote for Bolsonaro and vice versa. The question is to find out what can move the electorate.
The answer becomes more nebulous when you note that, since March, poll results have changed little, aside from statistical trifles. From the end of 2021 until March, Bolsonaro won some points. Since then, his vote or the note to his government has changed almost nothing. Lula also stayed the same. Bounce rates stayed the same. The other candidates continued in their small electoral niches.
The country, however, looks like a horrendous riot and so resonates in the worlds and bubbles of public opinion, from newspapers to social media. For some reason, disasters, scandals and persistent misery did not influence votes. The noise information (sic) did not arrive or caused indifference, it is not known whether due to conviction of vote or another reason.
But something had changed in the first quarter. Bolsonaro recovered, which worried PT members and made Bolsonarismo predict a turnaround. Bolsonaro’s prestige, almost always low, varied more in the shock of the epidemic, in the first half of 2020, when he fell. It improved with the emergency aid of R$ 600. It fell even further with the end of the aid and rising inflation. But it improved even with high inflation at the beginning of the year (there were more jobs).
Whether these coincidences are the reasons for the fluctuation in popularity is impossible to pinpoint, although data and some experience indicate that yes, these may be the causes. Qualitative research suggests that parts of the electorate, women in particular, have held a lasting dislike of Bolsonaro because of his inhumanity.
Crushing Lula’s image will be a campaign motto. It’s just not clear when it starts. But even before the electoral recess in Congress, the government will approve whatever it can to take votes away from the PT, no matter if it will break the government or stock up on inflation for 2023. For Bolsonaro, this was never a problem.
Instead of increasing subsidies for fuel, Bolsonaro will try to pay an Aid Brazil of R$ 600 until the end of the year, which is, by the way, the most sensible measure in the event of a price shock and misery – because it is humanly and technically more sensible. , had not been adopted until now.
The electorate that receives Auxílio Brasil evaluates the government very similarly to the average for the country. You may even notice electoral fraud, as the extra money would not be paid until the end of the year. But that’s not the point, here and now.
As has been clear since Datafolha in May, the important thing is to get enough points from Lula for a second round to take place. The socioeconomic situation will change little until October. It is difficult to remake Bolsonaro’s image. But a couple of points avoids the risk of defeat in the first round and guarantees the possibility of subversion until the second.
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