An article in “Bloomberg” warned of the growing gulf between China and Taiwan, which could lead to a military confrontation, over the next five years.
George Mason University economic analyst, Tyler Quinn, said that China might take military action that includes the occupation of the “Kimoy and Matsu” islands, off the Chinese coast, which the Taiwan authorities claim to own.
The economic analyst expects that China may occupy the islands without inflicting any losses on its army, and after this, China may invite both the US and Taiwan governments to discuss what will happen next.
Quinn pointed out that it would not be the first time that China tried to control the islands, as it had previously tried in 1958, and Taiwan had fortified the islands with the help of the United States.
The author of the article indicated that in the event that this occurs, the United States may resort to imposing sanctions on China, at a time when Washington depends on Beijing economically, in addition to the European Union considering China an important economic partner.
Quinn believes that the momentum China has achieved in the Hong Kong file, after the Chinese parliament passed the Security Law – which allowed Beijing to criminalize any attempts to secede Hong Kong, as well as impose restrictions on freedom of expression – may encourage it to take a bold step in the Taiwan file.
And in the middle of last month, the US military declared that Taiwan was the next target for Beijing, after it re-tightened its grip on Hong Kong.
Last week, the commander of US forces in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, Admiral Philip Davidson, warned during a hearing before a committee in the US Senate that China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory, may “invade the country within six years.”
The US military bases its analysis on a combination of military and symbolic factors, such as Beijing’s quest to invade the island of Taiwan (its official name is “the Republic of China”), which nationalists sought refuge in in 1949 after the Communists’ victory at the end of the Chinese Civil War.
China considers the island of Taiwan a rebellious territory and has repeatedly demanded that it be returned to Beijing’s arms, and by force if necessary. And the United States, even if it does not recognize the island as an independent state, has formally committed to its defense.
During the recent period, the Chinese army accelerated the pace of its modernization, even in the period of the epidemic, by focusing its efforts on appropriate weapons, especially for the invasion of Taiwan, according to what a US military official told a group of journalists on condition of anonymity.