Collective irresponsibility treaty: Russia risks finally losing Armenia

“Information and .about. Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan was taken into account. Work in accordance with the instructions of the chairman of the CSTO Collective Security Council, Emomali Rahmon, continues … “The response of the CSTO spokesman to Pashinyan’s indignation at the organization’s slowness only confirms the validity of these claims.

The correspondence between the CSTO and the Armenian prime minister makes us think seriously about the meaning of the existence of this structure. More precisely, did it have any meaning at all?

Recall that with a request for help to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (specifically – to the chairman of the CSTO council, Emomali Rahmon), Pashinyan officially appealed on May 14. Two days earlier, the Azerbaijani armed forces violated the state border in the area of ​​Lake Sevlich and advanced several kilometers into the territory of the republic.

This, in any case, is the version of the Armenian side. The position of Baku, of course, is different: our military are on their land and are engaged in “clarifying the border.” But, in theory, with great confidence in the organization should relate to the interpretation of a military ally.

Since then, the conflict situation has not only not resolved, but has become even more aggravated. Fistfights between Armenian and Azeri servicemen escalated into shootings. And in the end, even prisoners appeared: the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan reported on the neutralization and detention of six Armenian soldiers, who were part of the “reconnaissance and sabotage group”, in its border area.

The Armenian side, in turn, qualifies the enemy’s actions as kidnapping and insists that it happened on its territory, and the detainees were engaged in engineering work.

In general, the farther, the hotter. According to the head of the Armenian government, Baku seeks to provoke a full-scale military conflict in order to break through the “corridor” to the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic by force. And, perhaps, this version is not without grounds. For reference: this exclave is separated from the main territory of Azerbaijan by about 30 kilometers.

“In the event of an aggression (armed attack threatening security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty) against any of the participating States, all other participating States, at the request of this participating State, will immediately provide it with the necessary assistance, including military,” reads Article 4 Collective Security Treaty.

However, Pashinyan did not insist on the immediate dispatch of the allied military contingent to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The appeal was sent to them in the manner of Article 2: “In the event of a threat to the security, stability, territorial integrity and sovereignty of one or more participating States … the participating States shall immediately activate the mechanism of joint consultations … develop and take measures to provide assistance to such participating States in order to eliminate the threat that has arisen ”.

But, as we can see, even the “mechanism of joint consultations” does not work very effectively in this organization. Or rather, it doesn’t work at all. Two weeks have passed since the Armenian SOS signal, but so far there is not only “measures to provide assistance”, but even some meaningful position of the organization on this issue.

The roots of this indistinctness are obvious: no one wants to fit in with Armenia, spoiling (and possibly ruining altogether) relations with Azerbaijan and its ally Turkey. Well, more precisely, the reluctance of Russia, since, given the military-political proportions of the CSTO members, the organization is in fact the avatar of the Russian Federation. Actually, it is Moscow that is the main addressee of Pashinyan’s plea for help.

The restraint of the Russian leadership is understandable. Even split. We have enough, no doubt, and our problems. And other people’s problems, moreover, smell strongly of blood. However, the laws of geopolitics are harsh: he called himself a load, that is to say, a great power – get into the back. Do not climb – there is another lump.

“If it turns out that the CSTO instruments or agreements on a joint Armenian-Russian grouping of forces will not help solve this problem,” Pashinyan said, Armenia will turn to the United Nations. It is clear that the UN alone will not solve the problem either. But there is a country that has already declared its readiness to provide military assistance to Armenia within the framework of the UN mandate – France.

“An appeal to the UN Security Council will mean the factual statement of the stillbirth of the CSTO and a serious image blow to the Kremlin,” said analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan, who appears on social networks under the nickname El Murid. “The prospects for obtaining a mandate from the UN Security Council, frankly, are vague, since the resolution may well be blocked by Russia … But this will only strengthen anti-Russian sentiments in Armenia, which already after the defeat in Karabakh really wants to find someone to blame this defeat on” …

The bitterness from such a prospect, however, is significantly mitigated by the fact that, frankly speaking, the CSTO was of no use to us either. And what good could it be if none of our registered military allies, speaking in legal terms, recognizes the territorial integrity of Russia! I mean, he doesn’t think that Crimea is ours.

Read the material “Capture of Armenian soldiers by Azerbaijan became part of a cunning plan”

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 28547 dated May 28, 2021

Newspaper headline:
Collective irresponsibility agreement

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