The Datafolha poll released this Thursday shows, once again, the stability of the electoral framework, but also demonstrates the threat of a civilizational hole. Evil strikes other democracies.
If the election took place today, Lula (PT) would win in the first round: it fluctuated from 48% in May to 47%. Jair Bolsonaro (PL) varied from 27% to 28%, and Ciro Gomes (PDT), from 7% to 8%. André Janones (Avante) follows with 2%. Simone Tebet (MDB) went from 2% to 1%, the same rate as Pablo Marçal (PROS) and Vera Lúcia (PSTU), who repeat their previous performance. In the second round, the former president would win the current one by 57% to 34%. Before, 58% to 33%. The margin of error is two percentage points.
Thus, it is most likely that nothing relevant has happened in the voting intentions. But a lot has happened. This is the hole that could derail the country if it expands.
Between the previous survey and this one, there were the murders of Bruno Araújo Pereira and Dom Phillips in Vale do Javari. The tragedy did not take place in a vacuum, but in a political environment that encouraged MMA. The question is obvious and the answer is no less: are the values emanating from the Planalto Palace and its public policies more in tune with Bruno and Dom or with their executors? Bolsonaro himself, Hamilton Mourão, the Federal Police and the so-called “bolsominions” on social media did not hesitate to point the accusatory finger at the victims.
In the interval, there was a fuel adjustment, and Bolsonaro, in the company of Arthur Lira, mayor and “de facto” ruler, decided to promote a cover-up at Petrobras, adding to the hysteria to the fiscal disorder promoted by such a package to lower the price, snaring the States in their disaster.
The president decided to raise the temperature of the coup rhetoric and, under his command, the TSE became the target of a real harassment by the Ministry of Defense. Even Anderson Torres, holder of the Justice portfolio, sent a somewhat rude letter to the court, announcing that the PF will audit the ballot boxes, probably using its own tools – we don’t know which ones. Everyone wants to supervise the court, in a free interpretation of a resolution, but we don’t know who supervises the inspectors.
Datafolha researchers took to the field on Wednesday and Thursday, amid the turmoil generated by the preventive detention, later revoked, of Milton Ribeiro, a former minister of Education and the lobbyist pastors, who belong to Bolsonaro’s circle. One has been to the Planalto Palace 35 times; the other ten. Here and there I heard that all this could create additional difficulties for the president at the polls. I disagreed, as the people I spoke to know.
Adherence to Bolsonaro has not been shaken at all and may even have discreetly improved. Reality no longer matters to fanatics. It is not known exactly what percentage would acquit him if he were caught slapping a child in the ear. What is certain is that they would say: “Something she must have done to deserve correction.” It is likely that they do not add up to 28% —in this percentage, there are also useful votes against Lula—, but rest assured: not many people are.
Repeat: this is not a native phenomenon. Donald Trump’s followers, for example, do not admire him as a tireless defender of democratic values. On the contrary: a considerable part of the adhesion is due precisely to the fact that he challenges them. It is not disheartening to note, but the truth is that millions of Brazilians — not the majority — think what Bolsonaro thinks.
Fanaticism does create difficulties in expanding the circle of support. Preaching to converts is frightening. But it imposes barriers to other names appearing in the dispute. It is worth remembering: the first opponents that Bolsonaro liquidated with his tactics were those identified with the non-extremist right. As the fascistid threat is explicit, many people migrate to Lula in the first round. And nothing comes between them.
This is gonna change? The president has already shown that public accounts will not be a limit. It desperately needs to grow up among the poor. The game is not played. But the economy and fanatics help him.
LINK PRESENT: Did you like this text? Subscriber can release five free accesses of any link per day. Just click the blue F below.