Egypt.. Annual inflation declined in October, and experts explain to CNN the reason.

Cairo, Egypt (CNN)–Economists attributed the reason for the annual inflation decline in Egypt during the month of October to 7.3% – for the first time after consecutive rises over 5 months – to the base period, which is the period to which inflation is compared, in addition to Increasing the stock of strategic commodities in Egypt, expecting that the Central Bank’s policies committee, at its last meeting this year, will maintain interest rates in view of the continued rise in the return on government debt instruments compared to other emerging markets.

The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics – the official agency concerned with statistics in Egypt and which collects, processes, analyzes and publishes all statistical data and censuses – announced a decline in the annual inflation rate in Egypt during the month of October to 7.3% compared to 8% during last September, while the monthly inflation rate increased during the month of October. October 1.7%.

Mona Badir, chief economic analyst at Prime Investment Bank, explained the reason for the decline in the annual inflation rate as a result of the decline in food prices compared to the same time last year, which witnessed an increase, but not significant compared to the same month in 2020, explaining that the prices of food commodities rose at the beginning of this year. For seasonal reasons, then the decline resumed during the last months of this year as a result of the stability of supply, despite the increase in white and red meat and oils.

The report of the Statistics Authority on inflation stated that the prices of the fruit group decreased at a monthly rate by (-6.4%), and the group of vegetables decreased by (-4.8%).

Badir added, in exclusive statements to CNN in Arabic, that while the monthly inflation rate for the total of the Republic rose to 1.7% – the highest rate during 2021.

According to a statement by the Statistics Authority, the reason for the increase in the monthly inflation rate is the rise in the prices of the meat and poultry group by (6.6%), the dairy, cheese and eggs group by (3.3%), the fish and seafood group by (1.9%), and the cereals and bread group by (1.4). %), the group of pre-primary and basic education (19.5%), the group of higher education (16.7%), the group of general and technical secondary education (5.3%).

And Badir linked, predicting inflation rates during the months of November and December, to the Egyptian government’s ability to provide goods and rely on strategic stocks, as the state bets on the stability of commodity prices, with a stock it has, which does not lead to a significant price increase during the coming period, as a result of the global inflationary wave and problems of supply chains and materials industrial.

According to a report issued by the Egyptian Cabinet, the total contracted by the Egyptian government from March 2020 to July 2021 amounted to 52.5 billion pounds, as it was contracted to import 7.2 million tons of wheat at a cost of 30 billion pounds, and 577 thousand tons of crude oil were contracted. Imported at a cost of 10.3 billion pounds, in addition to contracting 417 thousand tons of local crude oil at a cost of 5.9 billion pounds, as well as contracting 365.5 thousand tons of local rice at a cost of 2.4 billion pounds.

Mona Badir expected that the global inflation crisis would not affect the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank regarding interest rates at its next meeting during the month of December, and it would decide to fix the interest rate until the end of the year, justifying her opinion because there was no significant impact on the global crisis, and controlling prices in Egypt by providing goods at present.

The last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Egypt will be held, on December 16, to discuss interest rates after 8 meetings that saw the fixing of the overnight deposit and lending rates and the price of the main operation of the Central Bank at the level of 8.25%, 9.25% and 8.75%, respectively, as well as Maintaining the credit and discount rate at 8.75%.

For his part, the economist, Mustafa Badra, believes that the reason for the decline in the annual inflation rate in Egypt is due to the increase in the strategic stock of strategic goods, while the rise in the prices of red meat and others during the last two months significantly increased the monthly rate.

Badra agreed, in exclusive statements to CNN in Arabic, about the central bank fixing interest rates at its last meeting this year, due to the continued rise in the return on indirect foreign investment in government debt instruments compared to neighboring markets, but he expressed his concern about the effects of the global inflation wave on the inflation rate in Egypt during The coming period, as the prices of oil, gas and agricultural commodities in the world are still increasing, and the solution is to increase the domestic supply of commodities, especially since it is not clear when the global inflation wave will end.

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