Experts at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting believe that monetary stimulation of the global economy will lead to a new economic crisis in 2025.
In their opinion, there is a basic scenario for the development of the world economy, Izvestia writes. According to the first option, the COVID-19 pandemic will end in the middle of this year, oil prices will rise to $ 85 per barrel by the end of this decade. At the same time, the GDP growth rate will be at the level of 4% per year.
Another scenario suggests that the coronavirus pandemic will drag on until the middle of next year. At the same time, the cost of oil will drop to $ 55 per barrel and only by 2030 will it rise to $ 65. GDP growth rates will be 2-3% per year.
Experts are confident that both scenarios assume a recession in the economy, which will approximately occur in the middle of the current decade – in 2025. If everything goes according to the first scenario, then it will become a consequence of the market overheating due to monetary stimulation, and in the second – the continuation of the debt crisis.
As for the Russian economy, experts from the TsMAPK are sure that there are three scenarios. The first is called “new industrialization” and implies active stimulation of investment in Russia, growth of labor productivity and technical renewal of production. All this, according to economists, will lead to an increase in wages and consumption.
The second scenario is a “social turnaround”. Economic growth in Russia will come from an increase in wages, pensions and minimum wages. But this will put pressure on companies’ profits, thereby affecting the trade balance due to the accelerated expansion of imports and serving as a deterrent to modernization of the production apparatus.
The third scenario is “stabilization”. It means a structural crisis in the world economy. Because of this, they will not stimulate growth and import substitution.
The authors of the report are confident that the choice of this or that scenario will depend on factors such as the likelihood of military conflicts, the possible loss of social stability and a sharp increase in unemployment.