Published for France Télévisions and Radio France, a wave of Ipsos polls scrutinizes the situation one week before the election.
With just over a week before the regional elections, scheduled for June 20 and 27, the figures are under scrutiny. A wave of Ipsos polls published this Wednesday for France Télévisions and Radio France scrutinized the situation in the 13 regions of the metropolis. Le Figaro deciphers the main lessons to be learned.
The dynamics are obvious. In seven regions, including Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, the National Rally is at the top of the voting intentions in the first round. In four others, the flame party maintains its high levels, occupying second place. Notably, RN voters have the highest rate of certainty about their vote each time. The party is playing big: a local anchoring of such magnitude could become a weighty argument in Marine Le Pen’s campaign for 2022.
Outgoing presidents reappointed
The gaps widen in the second round, however, where several outgoing presidents gain the upper hand. Socialist Alain Rousset (Nouvelle-Aquitaine) is thus given the winner to run for a fifth term, as are LR Laurent Wauquiez (Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes), centrist Hervé Morin (Normandy), socialist Carole Delga (Occitanie), and Xavier Bertrand (Hauts-de-France), according to the latest Ipsos polls. In Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, despite the advance of RN candidate Julien Odoul in the first round, the outgoing socialist, Marie-Guite Dufay, manages to take the lead in the second.
Unsurprisingly in Île-de-France, it is the outgoing president ex-LR Valérie Pécresse who leads the ballot. His competitor from the RN, Jordan Bardella, occupies second place (around 18% of the vote for the two rounds). For his part, the majority candidate, Laurent Saint-Martin, is still struggling to get his candidacy off the ground (13%). As for the three left-wing lists, their leaders are vying for the first place for the moment occupied by the ecologist Julien Bayou (12%), who is just ahead of the PS candidate Audrey Pulvar and that of France rebellious Clémentine Autain (BIA). The alliance already planned for the second round is not announced as capable of changing the outcome of the ballot with 30% of the voting intentions.
It is in Center-Val de Loire that the outcome is more uncertain. Presented as one of the main hopes of the presidential majority to obtain a region, Minister Marc Fesneau is only third in the first round (19%) and fails to rise to the top in the second. The RN list led by Aleksandar Nicolic, yet unknown to the general public, is ahead of all its competitors (28%). The suspense remains in the second round: in the hypothesis of a triangular opposing the majority, the left union and the RN, the three parties are given around 33%, with a very short lead for the outgoing socialist president François Bonneau .
Matthieu Orphelin in the lead in Pays de la Loire
Another region to watch closely for the flame party: the Grand Est. Although announced second in the first round (25% against 27% for the outgoing LR Jean Rottner), the candidate of RN Laurent Jacobelli takes the lead in the second. Far behind, the left list of Éliane Romani (20%) and that of the presidential majority of Brigitte Klinkert (19%) are placed shoulder to shoulder.
Finally in the Pays de la Loire region – territory, with Corsica, where the RN stands out the least -, the former macronist Matthieu Orphelin creates a surprise. Lagging behind in the first round (19%) behind the outgoing LR Christelle Morancais (25%), the leader of an environmental rally largely takes the lead in the second (32%) and benefits from the postponement of the votes of the socialist Guillaume Garot . The former Minister of the Ecological Transition, François de Rugy, does not manage to stand out and stagnates around 20%.
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