In the last days of 2021, a group of Brazilian researchers, linked to the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation and the Covid-19 Brazil Observatory, made available a pre-print article —not yet evaluated, therefore, by the scientific publication’s reviewers— that makes a new contribution to estimate how many Brazilians Jair Bolsonaro killed during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The cross-referencing between vaccination data and deaths by Covid-19 in 2021, the year in which vaccination began, leaves no room for doubt. Watch what happens as the vaccination progresses. As vaccination grows, the number of deaths drops, and it drops fast.
With these data, the researchers used statistical techniques to verify, based on the pattern observed in 2021, two things. The first, the good news, is that vaccination saved at least 75 thousand elderly Brazilians in 2021.
Seventy-five thousand people are a full Maracanã. Imagine the stadium full of fathers and mothers, grandfathers and grandmothers. There is a button that opens the gates and lets them go home and celebrate Christmas 2021 with their families, gives them more time with their children and grandchildren, gives their children and grandchildren more time with them.
The vaccine pressed that button. All went out and spent Christmas 2021 with their families.
The second conclusion of the study is this: if the vaccination had followed exactly the same pace, but started a month earlier, 25,000 elderly people who died in 2021 would not have died. Had they started two months earlier, 48,000 elderly people who died in 2021 would not have died.
But Jair Bolsonaro pressed the button not to buy vaccine. Everyone in the stadium died struggling for oxygen. His children and grandchildren cried for Christmas 2021, as they will cry for the next ones. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro was dancing funk on a speedboat.
The new study assumes that the vaccines would have been applied at the rate and volume in which they were actually applied in Brazil in 2021. But the CPI proved that if Bolsonaro had not turned down offers from Pfizer, Butantã and half of the Covax Facility offer, there would have been a lot more vaccine, much sooner. Many other stadiums would have the door open button.
As I said in the column, epidemiologist Pedro Hallal calculated how many people would have been saved by the end of May if the offers from Pfizer and Butantã had been accepted.
The result was 95 thousand. An arena for Palmeiras and an arena for Corinthians combined. Imagine these stadiums filled with fathers and mothers, grandfathers and grandmothers. They wanted to return home to celebrate Christmas 2021 with their families.
We still don’t have estimates of how many stadiums full of mothers and fathers, grandmothers and grandfathers, sons and daughters, brothers and sisters would have been saved after the end of May, or if Bolsonaro had accepted the other half of the Covax Facility consortium’s offer, or if it hadn’t sabotaged the work of the governors, or if it hadn’t fought the wearing of masks, or if it had implemented mass testing with contact tracking.
If anyone in government can dispute these numbers, the debate is open.
LINK PRESENT: Did you like this text? Subscriber can release five free hits of any link per day. Just click on the blue F below.