EXCLUSIVE SURVEY – According to an Ifop-Fiducial study for Le Figaro and LCI, the outgoing LR president would be left behind in all cases, in the first as well as in the second round.
This is the first poll in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur since the presidential majority’s attempt to reconcile with Renaud Muselier. Without a doubt, the candidate of the National Rally Thierry Mariani comes out of this sequence reinforced. In the two hypotheses tested by Ifop-Fiducial for Le Figaro and LCI, it takes the lead in the first lap before converting the test in the second. If the outgoing LR Renaud Muselier and the presidential majority manage to reach an agreement before the first round, the alliance would only obtain 34% of the vote (stable compared to the last survey of April 6 and 9) against 38% (+ 6) for Thierry Mariani. Secretary of State Sophie Cluzel, if she decided to submit her list in the first round, is credited with 11% of the votes (-2). In this case, Renaud Muselier is surveyed at 27% (=) but Thierry Mariani is again showing strong growth (36%; + 5). “There is a remobilization of abstainers in favor of the candidate RN“, Observes Frédéric Dabi, Director General of Ifop, who more broadly mentions”a national progression of the RN».
At the same time, “Renaud Muselier holds up the shock after a week spent in the eye of the storm». «It’s not such a catastrophic poll for him», Since the outgoing president does not drop in the voting intentions. Nevertheless, a few elements illustrate an impetus in favor of Thierry Mariani, who is “in pole position», Says the pollster: 32% to 35% of retirees; 20% to 27% of LR voters; and 31% to 38% of former voters of François Fillon wish to vote for the RN from the first round, according to the different configurations analyzed. “A minority shift but not negligible. We can see that the attempted agreement has diluted the right-wing identity of Renaud Muselier», Notes Frédéric Dabi.
Losses compensated by Renaud Muselier by a good tie-up of the Macronist electorate. Thus, if Sophie Cluzel decided to submit her candidacy, 40% of Emmanuel Macron’s voters would still vote for the outgoing president of the region in the first round.
Last lesson of the first round, the left does not manage to build a dynamic. Jean-Laurent Feliza, who brings together EELV, the PS and the PCF behind him is credited with 13% of the votes (-2) against 7% (=) for the rebellious candidate Marina Measure. It was before the announcement of the filing of a list by the president of “Cap ecology”, Jean-Marc Governatori. “The qualification of the left in the second round is not guaranteed», Considers Frédéric Dabi.
In the second round, Thierry Mariani is given the winner (41%) at the end of a triangular. Despite the support of the presidential majority, the outgoing LR Renaud Muselier would only win 39% of the vote. As for the united left, it would peak at 20%. Note that 39% of former voters of François Fillon would vote for Thierry Mariani. Renaud Muselier could count, for his part, on a small fringe of the left. Some 24% of former voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and 17% of those who slipped a ‘Benoît Hamon’ ballot in 2017, would opt for a useful anti-RN vote by turning to the LR-LREM candidate. “As a result of the controversies, the power potential of the LR-LREM agreement is diminished. The major challenge for Renaud Muselier is to bring together the right-wing electorate», Comments Frédéric Dabi. Before concluding : “There are five weeks left, there is still a game to play».