OPEC was a little more optimistic on Tuesday for global oil demand this year, against the backdrop of an expected economic recovery, as the cartel is preparing to ease the cuts in its production.
The global rebound in demand for crude is now expected to reach 6 million barrels per day (mb / d) this year, an upward revision of 0.1 mb / d from last month, the United Nations said. oil-producing countries in its monthly report. The forecasts had already been revised upwards in March.
Global demand expected at 96.5 mb / d
Global demand is therefore expected at 96.5 mb / d this year, after plunging to 90.5 mb / d last year. “Oil demand in the second half of the year should be positively influenced by a stronger-than-expected economic rebound last month, supported by stimulus programs and an easing of restrictions against Covid, against the backdrop of accelerating vaccination deployment», Notes OPEC.
However, these upward prospects mainly concern the developed countries of the OECD and will follow a still sluggish first half-year. At the beginning of April, the OPEC countries and their allies (in particular Russia) within the OPEC + agreement had decided to gradually lighten their black gold production cuts, intended to support prices, against a background of optimism sector facing a recovery supported by vaccination campaigns against Covid-19.
Last month, OPEC’s production increased modestly by 0.2 mb / d to 25.042 mb / d, according to secondary (indirect) sources cited in the report. This increase is mainly due to an increase in Iranian production of 137,000 barrels per day between February and March, to 2.3 mb / d.
Iran, whose oil industry is subject to an embargo by the United States, is still very far from the volumes it produced a few years ago. Discussions are currently underway in Vienna to try to save the international Iranian nuclear agreement concluded in 2015. The United States is associated with it without direct contact with Iran.