Although president Jair Bolsonaro (no party) has not hammered out his partisan destiny, the two central parties that support his government, PP and PL, should make up the presidential ticket, one affiliating the head of the Executive , and the other, the vice.
This is the agreement that has been discussed by the summits of the two legends and by palace auxiliaries.
Last week, Bolsonaro indicated to allies that he should go to PL. Arrested and convicted in the monthly allowance, Valdemar Costa Neto, leader of the party, recently recorded a video inviting the president and supporters to join.
The day before the recording, the agent had sent a message to Valdemar saying that he was determined to migrate to the acronym.
The party leader expected him to announce the decision on the day the video was released, which he did not.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Patriota-RJ) went to social networks to thank him for the invitation, but said that the president still has conversations with the PP.
Palace assistants who defend that Bolsonaro join the PL say they believe this is the most guaranteed way to tie the acronym with the president in 2022, avoiding an eventual neutrality or, worse, a stampede to support another candidate, such as former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
Allies also already see a certain amount of pragmatism in choosing the party. The assessment is that television time will be crucial in the dispute and the PP is already taken for granted in the coalition. Thus, with PL, Bolsonaro would have even more exposure during election time.
If the clan’s departure to Valdemar’s party is confirmed, it would be up to the PP to suggest a name to dispute the Vice-Presidency on a ticket with the president.
Despite the president’s nomination, leaders of both acronyms say they will only have confidence in the decision on the day he announces it. This is because Bolsonaro oscillates about party affiliations, has been closer to joining the PP and has quoted, at other times, smaller subtitles.
TO sheet, Flávio, senator and son of Bolsonaro, stated that the hammer was not hit. “There is no decision yet.”
People around the president say the decision is a personal one, although they believe it is past time to make it.
Bolsonaro has already told allies that he will only announce where he is going when União Brasil, the party that will result from the merger of DEM and PSL, is formed. This is expected to take place by December.
Although negotiations are advanced for a PP-PL ticket, two parties that have been allies of PT governments in the past, palace ministers say there is no preference for names to run for the Vice-Presidency alongside Bolsonaro.
In the PP, a name considered as an option to compose the slate as vice president is that of the minister of the Civil House, Ciro Nogueira (PI), a licensed senator.
Both PP and PL have seats at the Planalto Palace. The first with Ciro Nogueira and the second with Flávia Arruda (Government Secretariat). The president of the Chamber and the president’s ally, Arthur Lira (AL), is also from the PP.
Today, Republicans are also considered one of Bolsonaro’s closest parties. The president has already evaluated affiliation to the legend linked to the Universal Church, but this option is currently treated as the least likely by people close to the president.
In PP, the license agreement is considered closed. In the PL, people close to Valdemar say that the leader has only been talking about the construction of a possible ticket in the future, but that there was no closed commitment with Ciro Nogueira’s party.
The idea of both parties, more than guaranteeing Bolsonaro’s re-election, is to form a strong bench in Congress.
With the agreement, both PL and PP would gain expression. Electing a good number of deputies also guarantees more resources from the Electoral Fund and political weight to negotiate with the Executive, regardless of who is sitting in the presidential chair in 2023.
Bolsonaro’s doubts about his affiliation also involve the advantages that each acronym offers and the preferences of his supporters in Congress, since most of them must accompany him.
Minister Onyx Lorenzoni (Labor and Welfare), now affiliated with the DEM, is one of the biggest enthusiasts of Bolsonaro’s move to the PL. He himself has already stated to Valdemar that he will migrate to the party regardless of the party chosen by the president.
Onyx has also sought to articulate the formation of a federation of PP and PL, a possibility today discarded by leaders of the two acronyms.
The minister’s choice has to do with the configuration of the electoral dispute in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. The PP has senator Luiz Carlos Heinze as pre-candidate for the government of Rio Grande do Sul, a position also coveted by Onyx.
Palace assistants work, behind the scenes, to make the senator of Covid’s CPI shock troops give up his candidacy and take over the Ministry of Agriculture when Teresa Cristina graduates to contest the elections.
TO sheet Heinze said the possibility is “completely ruled out”. According to him, the leader of the government in Congress, Eduardo Gomes (MDB-TO), sought him out about two months ago to propose the composition, but he refused.
“If I wanted to, I would have competed for the chair [do ministério] back there with Teresa. Not belittling agriculture, which is my origin, but my range is wider today. And my focus, my project is this [governo do Rio Grande do Sul]”, said Heinze.
Allies of the president say that, in the PL, Bolsonaro would be more likely to influence state boards, since the party has only one chief, unlike the PP.
Although there are congressmen with a strong expression in the PL, the destiny of the legend is defined mainly by Valdemar, without the need for approval from the regional directors.
At PP, the scenario is different. In Bahia, for example, congressmen from the PP want to support the PT candidate Jaques Wagner’s candidacy for the state government.
In São Paulo, the acronym considered supporting Rodrigo Garcia (PSDB), an ally of Governor João Doria (PSDB), who is disaffected by Bolsonaro, in the fight for the government.
However, the party took to the president the possibility of composing a slate with former governor Geraldo Alckmin, who should join the PSD, launching minister Tarcísio de Freitas (Infrastructure) to the Senate —one of the most dear names to the president on the electoral board .