The PSDB summit decided, on Tuesday (8), to unanimously approve the rules of the party’s presidential caucuses that differentiate the weight of affiliates and incumbent politicians – but left gaps for changes in the model to be voted on next week, which leaves the game open and can benefit João Doria (PSDB).
The postponement of the definition, however, was seen as another defeat for the toucan in his party. Doria’s group believed they had a majority to adopt, at the meeting, changes in favor of the São Paulo governor, such as the increase in the weight of affiliates, and defended that the vote be concluded this Tuesday.
The allies of the other pre-candidates, however, wanted to postpone the issue. The theme was the vote, and the postponement was approved. Doria’s internal competitors are Eduardo Leite (RS), Arthur Virgílio (AM) and Tasso Jereissati (CE).
According to the approved rules, the affiliates have 25% of the weight of the votes, and Doria wants to increase the participation to at least 50% – since her initial proposal for universal voting, that is, all affiliates with the same weight, was buried by the commission of previews last week.
For toucans close to Doria, the postponement was a maneuver to avoid the São Paulo victory and try, until next week, to deconstruct most of it. Even toucans not linked to Doria admit that the atmosphere was favorable to him at the meeting and that there could be a majority for his proposal that the members represent 50% of the votes.
Other party members point out, however, that the fact that Doria lost the vote on the postponement demonstrates that he would not have a majority in the collegiate body.
In addition to this change advocated by São Paulo, there is another one presented by federal deputy Paulo Abi-Ackel, president of the PSDB in Minas Gerais. The idea is for the group of affiliates to be subdivided –12.5% for members of state directories and 12.5% for other affiliates.
Now, it will be up to Doria and its internal competitors to try to reach an understanding regarding the suggested changes, which will be submitted to the executive’s vote next Tuesday (15). In theory, only changes can be made to the weights of the voting groups already approved this Tuesday, but these lateral changes have the potential to give advantage to one or another toucan president.
Doria’s allies are pressing for greater weight of affiliates because São Paulo has the largest share of them — 22% of the 1.36 million affiliates, according to the TSE (Superior Electoral Court).
On the last 31st, the PSDB preliminary committee, coordinated by former senator José Aníbal (SP), concluded the proposal for voting in four groups, each with a unit weight of 25%.
The groups are: one of affiliates; one of mayors and deputy mayors; another of councilors, state and district deputies; and the fourth group brings together governors, vice-governors, senators, federal deputies, former presidents and president of the PSDB.
For example: in group one, candidate A has 60% of the vote and candidate B 20%. In the final account, A adds 15% and B 5%.
According to the executive’s decision, the previews are scheduled for November 21, with a possible second round on November 28. While Doria preferred the date released by the party initially, October 17, other pre-candidates and party leaders were pressing for the postponement to next year.
The toucans expect that Doria, in case she loses the caucuses, will leave the party and seek to be a candidate for Planalto by another acronym, which explains her haste.
The reason given for the postponement was the issue of the pandemic, but there are behind-the-scenes efforts on the part of the Chamber of Deputies, a group that includes Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG), so that the party does not bid for president of the Republic, a measure that would make more money from the electoral fund for parliamentarians to be reelected.
According to toucans heard by leaf, however, the idea of holding previews and launching a candidate is consolidated. And the need to choose a presidential candidate this year came after the realization that other names are already on the campaign trail, such as President Jair Bolsonaro (no party), Lula (PT) and Ciro Gomes (PDT).
Because of the pandemic, toucans must vote through an app, and all members will be eligible until May 31st.
The expectation is low regarding the participation of affiliates, considering previous previews. In 2016, Doria had 43% of the approximately 6,100 votes in the first round and won the second round with almost all of the 3,200 votes. The capital of São Paulo had about 27 thousand members at the time. In 2018, he got 80% of the votes of about 15,000 members – the state total at the time was approximately 310,000.’