THE MACRONOMETER – Ifrap, which gives it a score of 5/10, pleads for a readable, fair and simple reform. Every week, the liberal think-tank assesses government policy in Le Figaro.
At the end of 2020, estimates were on 8% unemployment. It will ultimately be much more, because Unedic now anticipates an unemployment rate of 10.1% for 2021 with 230,000 job cuts and 70,000 more people receiving unemployment benefits. What this means ? That the unemployment insurance deficit will continue: -17.4 billion already in 2020, it should be -10 billion in 2021 and -6.4 billion again in 2022. Unedic’s debt is already of around 60 billion euros.
In 2018, the government presented its reform of unemployment insurance with the stated objective of saving 1 billion euros, in particular by modifying the method of calculating benefits, as well as the conditions for opening rights. The first measures were to come into effect at the end of 2019, then on April 1, 2020 … a date finally postponed to July 1, 2021. A date that may be of concern but it seems that the government is betting on the economic rebound for the summer of 2021, date to which a larger portion of the population should be vaccinated against Covid (currently 3% of the population is). At the same time, it should be noted that the implementing decrees, passed before the Covid crisis, expire in November 2022, when they will have to be renegotiated with social partners very hostile to the reform.
New calculation method
Thus, on July 1, 2021, the method of calculating benefits will change: this new method of calculation must prevent a beneficiary from being able to receive more unemployment than working. For this, the daily compensation will no longer be calculated on the only days worked for 12 months but on the daily reference salary over a period of 24 months. A floor has been added to the measure in order to guarantee a minimum allowance (57% of the SJR), so the number of days not worked taken into account in this calculation is limited to 13 days not worked out of 30. This new method of calculation , 38% of beneficiaries, or 840,000 people, should see their allowance drop by about 20%, while for.
From now on, the reform of the SJR will enter, according to the draft decree of March 24, 2021, no longer simultaneously but before the reform of the hardened eligibility conditions postponed to the second half of 2022. The only reform of the SJR should lead the 1time year to an allocation reduction of 17% on average for 1.15 million beneficiaries. The minimum allowance remains the one in force since 2017 (47% of the SJR). If the economic outlook improves sufficiently from 2022, the new eligibility conditions should be put in place and lead to a drop in the number of claimants compensated and therefore affected by the reform.
The opening of rights is indeed also modified. On March 2, the government announced that it wanted to maintain the threshold at 4 months worked over 24 months for the opening of rights, over 36 months for employees aged 53 and over and an exceptionally extended threshold to take into account periods confinement up to 31 months (or 43 months). Stalled to enter into force on 1is October 2021, the basic rule will be that you must have worked six months out of 24 (last 36 months for employees aged 53 and over) to receive compensation. It has nevertheless just been postponed to 2022. Just like the establishment of a bonus / penalty by the taxation of short contracts (CDDU) outside and for intermittent entertainment for a theoretical gain of 50 million euros.
At 1is July 2021, the degression of unemployment benefits for high incomes will come into force again. As a reminder, this measure had been in effect since 1is November 2019 but with the start of effective degression only 7 months later, ie in May 2020. Due to the Covid crisis, this measure was frozen … and finally returned in July. This degression will concern beneficiaries under 57 years of age receiving a salary, before unemployment, greater than 4,500 euros gross and may go up to 30% from the 7th month of benefits (i.e. in January 2022). In 2020, this measure should only affect between 1,000 and 2,000 beneficiaries for a saving of around 200 million euros. If the introduction of degressivity over time is a good thing, the fairness of this targeted measure nevertheless raises questions because the contributions of executives, according to the CFE-CGC, represent 42% of the total while they only receive 15%. allowances. A fairer rebalancing should have seen, in return for a reduction in allowances, a reduction in contributions because executives will always contribute as much in CSG for the salary part and in contributions (4% – one of the highest in Europe) for the employer part, up to an unrestricted income ceiling of 13,508 euros per month. It seems important to remember that elsewhere in Europe, when we cap rights, we also cap the contribution base at around 6,000 euros in Germany, 3,700 euros in Spain or even 4,500 in the Netherlands …
The deficit balance of UNEDIC accounts and the context of the crisis call more for less complex measures with a clearer timetable with a uniform drop in the replacement rate for all beneficiaries. France being one of the most generous countries with an average replacement rate of over 70%, savings of 3 billion euros per year are possible by uniformly reducing the allowances of all compensated persons by 9.4%. The reform envisages cruising savings of 2.26 billion euros but we do not know at all when … The period would be more favorable with regard to unemployment insurance and given the number of unemployed than the France will count in the months to come to a readable, fair and simple reform. Resuming the 2018 reform by changing the dates is not a satisfactory solution.