Economists have listed the reasons
The ruble has fallen on hard times, it is rapidly weakening. The official euro rate set by the Central Bank on April 13 exceeded 92 rubles, the dollar rate – 77.5. The financiers ask Russians not to get upset now – things will get worse in the future. According to their forecasts, due to the growth of geopolitical tensions in the world, the aggravation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the possibility of imposing tough sanctions by the US and the EU, as well as due to the possible outflow of funds from emerging markets, the national currency will continue to fall. By the May holidays, the dollar can rise to 85 rubles, and the euro – up to 99.
In just a month, the value of the dollar increased from 73 to almost 78 rubles, and the euro – from 87 to 92. The rapid fall of the national currency was not a surprise. Earlier, experts predicted that in the first half of the spring of 2021, several negative factors would converge at once, which would deal a crushing blow to the “wooden” one.
The problems of the ruble have been accumulating since the beginning of 2021, conditions for a future fall in the exchange rate were formed in two directions at once. The first is the increasing foreign policy pressure from the United States and a number of European countries, and the second is the budgetary weakness of the Russian currency, due to the difficulties that have arisen with financing the federal budget deficit through the placement of OFZs. Foreign investors stopped buying domestic debt securities due to possible restrictions on the Russian government debt.
To date, there are only more negative factors affecting the Russian national currency, experts emphasize. “The ruble is weakening due to sanctions risks and growing geopolitical tensions – these factors are now coming to the fore. In addition, the domestic currency is reacting today to the drop in oil quotations that occurred the day before, which after a long weekend on the western stock exchanges have seriously decreased, ”said Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at Amarkets.
Meanwhile, as soon as the threat of sanctions began to be concretized, and this happened just in mid-March, the exodus of foreign investors from Russian assets intensified. But, if earlier, during periods of instability in financial markets, foreign investors, leaving domestic assets, remained in the ruble zone, now, judging by the dynamics of the exchange rate, they are also leaving the ruble, which indicates extremely negative expectations regarding the prospects for the Russian market.
“Unfortunately, there is nothing to please the Russians, the weakening of the ruble can not only continue, but also accelerate,” says Anton Greenstein, an expert at the Hamilton Information and Analytical Center. …
According to him, with a high probability, the pressure will continue and this pressure may not only be converted into specific sanctions, such as disconnection from the SWIFT international settlement system, a ban on the purchase of public debt and other restrictions, but also intensify due to a blow from the oil market.
The US is trying to negotiate with Iran on the resumption of the “nuclear deal” and the return of Iranian oil to the international market. If this happens, and the likelihood of such an event in the next month is very high, oil prices could fall by 15-20%, aggravating the situation with financing the federal budget deficit in Russia, and therefore with the ruble exchange rate. “To this must be added the increasing risks of large-scale correction on stock markets, which could provoke an outflow of funds from emerging markets and additional pressure on the ruble exchange rate. So in May, the ruble will likely trade in the range of 80-85 against the dollar, and 95-99 against the euro, ”says Grinstein.
As for the internal agenda, according to the analyst, now it determines the dynamics of the Russian currency exchange rate to a lesser extent. “The increase by the Bank of Russia of the key rate by 0.5 percentage points, which may occur at the next meeting of the regulator, is already included in the ruble exchange rate. Another important factor that can affect the exchange rate of the Russian currency is the Address of the President of Russia to the Federal Assembly, scheduled for April 21. “But one can hardly expect the announcement of such serious changes in economic and, moreover, foreign policy, which could neutralize the negative external background and the problems of financing the budget deficit,” warns the interlocutor of MK.
Spring aggravation of the ruble