According to The Wall Street Journal, citing its sources in American intelligence, the Afghan government and the capital Kabul may collapse in the period from six months to a year after the withdrawal of US troops, and possibly three months later.
Recall that the withdrawal of the international coalition troops in Afghanistan began in the spring and should be completed by the memorable date of September 11th. This is a symbolic step by Washington, since it was after the attack on the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001 that the current operation in Afghanistan began.
However, it cannot be ruled out that Washington deliberately exaggerates in order, if necessary, to have a reason to start a new operation in Afghanistan, albeit a smaller one. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Prime Minister Abdullah Abdullah meet with US President Joseph Biden in Washington on June 25 to continue negotiations between Kabul and the Taliban (movement banned in Russia) to form a coalition government.
The Taliban themselves also declare that they are “committed to peace negotiations.” And they promise to take into account the rights of all citizens after the withdrawal of foreign troops “in the light of the rules of Islam and the noble traditions of Afghan society.”
Alexander Knyazev, Professor at the Faculty of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University
With regard to fears that the Taliban (banned in Russia) militants, having entered the border with the countries of Central Asia, will not stop, it should be recalled that in 2001 almost the entire territory of Afghanistan was under the control of the Taliban. Nevertheless, there were no clashes with the forces of the countries of Central Asia. Today the Central Asian republics have established platforms for dialogue with the Taliban. And the position of the Taliban does not exclude the negotiation process within the country, since the leaders of the movement understand that there is no military solution.
Fears that the Taliban will seize Kabul and most of the country are unrealistic. Afghanistan’s armed forces have changed over the past decades. In particular, the ethno-political non-Pashtun parties opposing the Taliban have become stronger, some of them have become extremely powerful. For example, a brigade of Afghan Hazaras appeared, which fought in Syria on the side of Damascus and received combat experience there. The Americans, by the way, are very much afraid of it, since the Shiite Hazaras are oriented towards Iran. Militia units have been forming throughout Afghanistan over the past few days. They have weapons, motivation too. And the motivation will only increase if the Taliban continue their offensive, and movements of different views can unite in the event of a common enemy advancing.
Afghanistan is entering a new stage of the civil war, which will be characterized by a high level of conflict. But these conflicts will not go beyond the borders of Afghanistan, and the current offensive by the Taliban is a way to gain political weight ahead of new talks on a coalition government. And the Taliban themselves have changed. They have already become convinced that they will not be able to easily seize power in the country, and now the Taliban elite are trying to incorporate themselves into the life of the country and enter the government as an integral part. They want to realize their ideology and model of state structure while in power. That is why negotiation processes have been going on for several years at various venues, in Doha, Moscow and others. The Moscow site, by the way, turned out to be very promising in this regard. Thus, the Taliban are interested in looking civilized enough in the eyes of the world community.